Launch the Reliability Forecast Platform

Launch the Reliability Forecast platform by selecting Analyze > Reliability and Survival > Reliability Forecast.

Figure 10.7 The Reliability Forecast Launch Window 

For more information about the options in the Select Columns red triangle menu, see Column Filter Menu in Using JMP.

The launch window includes a tab for each contract data format: Nevada, Dates, and Time to Event (for time to failure data). The following sections describe these formats.

Nevada Format

Contract data is commonly stored in the Nevada format: shipment or production dates and failure counts within specified periods are shaped like the state of Nevada. Figure 10.8 shows the Small Production.jmp sample data table.

Figure 10.8 Example of the Nevada Format 

The Nevada Format tab contains the following options:

Interval Censored Failure

Considers the returned quantity to be interval censored. The interval is between the last recorded time and the time that the failure was observed. This option is selected by default.

Life Time Unit

Physical date-time format of all time stamps, including column titles for return counts. The platform uses this setting in forecasting step increments.

Production Count

Column that identifies the number of units produced.

Timestamp

Column that contains the production date.

Failure Count

Column that contains the number of failed units.

Group ID

Column by which observations are grouped. Each group has its own distribution fit and forecast. A combined forecast is also included.

Dates Format

The Dates format focuses on production and failure dates. One data table specifies the production counts for each time period. The other table provides failure dates, failure counts, and the corresponding production times of the failures.

Figure 10.9 shows the Small Production part1.jmp and Small Production part2.jmp sample data tables.

Figure 10.9 Example of the Dates Format 

The Dates Format tab is divided into Production Data and Failure Data sections.

Production Data

Select Table

Select the table that contains the number of units and the production dates.

Failure Data

Select Table

Select the table that contains failure data, such as the number of failed units, production dates, and failure dates.

Left Censor

Column that identifies censored observations.

Timestamp

Column that links production observations to failure observations, indicating which batch a failed unit came from.

Censor Code

Value in the Censor column that designates right-censored observations. After a Censor column is selected, JMP attempts to automatically detect the censor code and display it in the box. To change this, click the red triangle and select from a list of values. You can also enter a different value in the box. If the Censor column contains a Value Labels column property, the value labels appear in the list of values. Missing values are excluded from the analysis.

Other options are identical to those on the Nevada Format tab. See Nevada Format.

Time to Event Format

The Time to Event format shows production and failure data. Unlike the Nevada and Dates formats, Time to Event data does not include date-time information, such as production or failure dates. This format can also accommodate arbitrary censoring schemes in the data. See Defining Risk Sets with Time to Event Data.

Figure 10.10 shows the Small Production Time to Event.jmp sample data table. For an example that uses time-to-event data, see Additional Example of the Reliability Forecast Platform.

Figure 10.10 Example of the Time to Event Format 

The Time to Event Format tab contains the following options:

Forecast Start Time

Time at which the forecast begins. Enter the first value that you want on the horizontal axis. To enable forecasting, you must select Numeric for the Life Time Unit and set the Forecast Start Time to zero.

Censor Code

Code for censored observations. Available only when you assign a Censor variable.

Other options are identical to those on the Nevada Format tab. See Nevada Format.